A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
